Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Price Map of the Market



For my own trading and for SPMM , I track the cnx 500 group of stocks and I may miss some good opportunities out side of this basket. Besides, most of the quality blue chips are costly in absolute price terms (they may be cheap valuation wise, I'm not aware). So I decided to make a separate data base of stocks in the 50 -200 range. In the process, first I ran a scan on the whole market just to understand how many stocks are below 50, how many are between 50 - 200 and so on. Above is the result. Most of the stocks below 50 are low volume, trade to trade type category and I'm not interested in them. Within the 50 - 200 range I found that there are 26.5% stocks which is a solid thing to work on going ahead!

Sunday, July 27, 2014

YTD Map


This is a map of the market performance. 2% stocks have remained unchanged, 23% of stocks have gained between 1 to 25%  and so on. 10% of the stocks are in the red. This scan was run on all the nse stocks and currently the total in my data base is around 1625.

How to Set Stops


There can be many ways to set stops on your long positions. You can use a certain % from your entry, or you can use ATR based stops, or if the stock has just broken out of a range then the lower end of the range can be a good stop. Another idea which I use is to look at the recent price behavior. See the chart above. After the big candle (arrow), prices never closed below 125 so that becomes a good stop.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Capital Goods / Metals




The monthly charts of these two sectors are almost identical. If you remember, these two started out performing the market in August last year and have done quite well since then. Capital Goods looks better on the A and B screens and on the C screen they are almost at level.

Healthcare / FMCG




Here's a comparison of the Health Care and FMCG sectors. Both are kind of slow but steady on the monthly charts and if you have patience then these sectors will pay off in a long run. Currently Health Care is better than FMCG on all the three screens. 

Friday, July 25, 2014

Recent SPMM Picks



These were my picks on June 15. Cipla is around the same level while Sun Pharma has gone up to 782 - a gain of 24%.


Sector Performance


Above is the sector performance for this week. The defensive sectors along with IT are major gainers this week.

 Nifty is at a new high but the other sectors are still struggling around the 16 May high (see the banks index chart at the bottom).




Tuesday, July 22, 2014

ABC Screens


These are my ABC screens. Above, the stocks are arranged according to their % gain in the A screen. Below they are arranged according to their % gain in the B screen. Similarly at the bottom is the C screen. 



The idea is to track the CNX 500 stocks on 3 time frames. Base date for Screen A is 31 Dec 2012. Base date for screen B is 31-12-2013. Screen C is for short term (3-4 months) and currently I'm using 30 April 2014 as the base date for screen C. 

As you maybe aware this is basically a top down approach which I use for stock selection - find the leading sectors and then find the leading stocks within those sectors. These screens are updated once a week and gives a very good idea on which stocks are moving up and down the ladder on 3 time frames. SPMM members receive these screens and other scans every week. 

Sunday, July 20, 2014

7400 Holds


Last week we had a rather rare engulfing bar formation on the weekly charts but the support around the extreme lower end around 7440 worked well. Besides, when everybody in town knows about the engulfing pattern then the chances of it working out are slim.